We like to think we know something about baseball. All of us.
Those of us who cover it. Those of us who follow it. Especially those of us who actually put together baseball teams for a living.
But then along comes a season like this. And along comes a division like the 2008 AL Central. And two months into a wild and crazy season, it feels as if everything we thought we knew about the AL Central has happened exactly the opposite.
Heck, even the general managers who are right in the middle of this thing can't figure their own division out.
"If you have an answer," Twins GM Bill Smith chuckled, "let me know."
Yeah, sure. Here are the answers we thought we had a couple of months ago:
The Tigers and Indians were going to stampede away with this division -- and naturally, they're a combined 16 games under .500. The Twins were going to tread water while they rebuild -- and of course, they're 1½ games out of first place. The Royals were going to be better -- and they just lost 12 games in a row.
Which brings us to the White Sox. We might have figured that this team and its mega-loquacious manager would be an ongoing soap opera. But who'd have figured Ozzie Guillen would be second-guessing his GM, publicly tossing his hitting coach into the firing lines and fanning those soap-operatic flames while he was in first place?
Nope. Never saw any of that coming. None of it. So now that we've watched it unfold for two months, what have we learned about the AL Central?
"I'll tell you one thing we've learned," said Indians GM Mark Shapiro. "This is just one more reminder of how little we really know. But that's the beauty of our game."
Ah, it's a beautiful thing, all right. So let's review baseball's most topsy-turvy division -- and see if we can sort out where it's been and where it's heading:
WHAT WE EXPECTED: We figured Nick Swisher and Orlando Cabrera would add energy. We also figured Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel would turn out to be $30 million in ill-advised bullpen dollars. And most of us concluded this team still wouldn't have enough going for it besides starting pitching to beat out the Tigers or Indians. Oops.
WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Carlos Quentin has vastly outperformed Swisher. Cabrera has moved into the master suite in Guillen's doghouse. Linebrink and Dotel have helped turn this bullpen into the best 'pen (2.80 ERA) in the league. Gavin Floyd and John Danks have answered their doubters. Jose Contreras has reincarnated himself -- again. And the White Sox have spent 45 days in first place -- more than they'd spent in the two seasons that followed the 2005 World Series parade combined.
TRIVIALITY
Before he was known for his riveting quotations, Ozzie Guillen was known for something else -- never letting the count get to ball four. Well, almost never. Guillen's 12 seasons with fewer than 30 walks (and at least 100 games played) are the third-most since 1900. But there's an active player in our midst, a well-known multiple All-Star, who has had nine seasons with under 30 walks. Can you name him? (Answer later.)
BEST REASON TO THINK THEY'LL WIN: Let's see now. The rotation leads the big leagues in quality starts (38). And the relief crew leads the league in bullpen ERA. So this is a win-the-World Series pitching staff. And it's a good thing, considering the offense has scored two runs or fewer 18 times. "If you've got starting pitching," said one scout, "and you've got your bullpen lined up from the seventh to the eighth and the ninth, you're lined up to win. But sooner or later, you've got to score more than one or two runs a game."
BEST REASON TO THINK THEY WON'T WIN: The White Sox are not a really deep team or a really deep organization. And they've been so astonishingly healthy so far, they've used only 26 players all season. "They've got absolutely no depth. Zero," said one AL executive. "If they need to call someone up, they've got Josh Fields, and that's it."
WATCH THIS PLOT LINE FROM NOW TO OCTOBER: Follow the bouncing manager. Guillen is a lead story on "SportsCenter" waiting to happen every day. And this just in: That's not good. But amazingly, Guillen's mouth-a-matics still seem to be more of an issue from afar than they are up close. "Sooner or later, doesn't that have to be a distraction?" wondered an official of one club. Well, possibly. But GM Kenny Williams has consistently said he won't fire Guillen over any entry in his ever-expanding book of quotations. And remember this: The Oz has a contract that runs through 2012. So as one baseball man assessed his latest barrage: "Most people get fired for that -- but Ozzie's got a five-year paycheck."
WHAT WE EXPECTED: We expected this to be the deepest pitching staff in baseball. We expected this relief crew to be the best bullpen in the AL Central. We expected Travis Hafner to bounce back. And we expected a team that won 96 games last year to take that next step. Hey, it all seemed logical at the time.
WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: The best starting pitcher in town has been -- who else? -- Cliff Lee. C.C. Sabathia has almost as many starts in which he's given up nine runs (two) as he has wins (three). Injuries (Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook and Joe Borowski) have tested that pitching depth. The bullpen has the second-highest ERA (4.44) in the AL. And Hafner (hitting .217, with 2 homers) headed for the DL last week with a sore shoulder -- and a lower OPS (.677) than Marco Scutaro or Jack Hannahan.
BEST REASON TO THINK THEY'LL WIN: Even though Westbrook figures to be out indefinitely, this rotation is still as good as any in baseball. Carmona (hip) returns by the end of the month. Sabathia (2.08 ERA in his past eight starts) is himself again. And this team's sixth and seventh starters -- Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers -- are better than some teams' third and fourth starters.
Blake
BEST REASON TO THINK THEY WON'T WIN: You think the White Sox have trouble scoring? Sheesh, the Indians hit just .218 for the entire month of May. They've already played 30 games in which they scored three runs or fewer. (They only did that 56 times all last year.) And their rotation injuries might make it impossible for them to deal a starting pitcher for an impact bat. "They've got problems," said one scout. "[Victor] Martinez is playing hurt. Asdrubal Cabrera hasn't done anything. Casey Blake is really just a bench player. And [Ryan] Garko and Hafner aren't hitting a lick. Their whole lineup is scuffling at once. And they don't have enough pitching to overcome all that."
WATCH THIS PLOT LINE FROM NOW TO OCTOBER: Could this team really unload Sabathia? Only if it thinks it has no shot to win. But clubs that have spoken with the Indians report they're already floating Sabathia's name just to "measure his value," even though they're also saying they're not ready to open the shop yet. So clearly, it's not impossible. "There's no other pitcher who could get traded in July who can impact the postseason like him," says an official of one team.
WHAT WE EXPECTED: It was all so clear once upon a time. This was going to be one of the most terrifying lineups in the history of lineups. Right? Drop Miguel Cabrera into the middle of all this thunder and he might drive in 200 runs. Right? Even the modern record for runs scored in a season (1,067) was reachable. Right?
WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Uhhh, wrong, wrong and wrong. No team in baseball has been shut out more times than the Tigers (nine). No team in the AL has scored two runs or fewer more times than the Tigers (23). And Cabrera, whose weight has headed upward while his OPS has headed downward (by 164 points), has been a perplexing disappointment. "It kinda looks," said one scout, "like his interest in getting in shape only lasted as long as it took to get his [new $152-million] contract signed."
BEST REASON TO THINK THEY'LL WIN: The Tigers have 103 games left, and they can't be this bad. Can they? Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney should be back in the bullpen shortly. Justin Verlander (a league-leading six Criminally Unsupported Starts) hasn't been as awful as his record (2-8). And we'd bet $1,000 this offense won't wind up leading the big leagues in shutouts. "I don't know anyone who didn't think they'd score a lot of runs," said one AL executive. "And I mean anyone. I was as sure as you. We recognized their other issues -- bullpen, age, depth. But their big trouble has been scoring runs. And it's hard to believe that will continue."
BEST REASON TO THINK THEY WON'T WIN: How come nobody noticed in March that these pieces didn't fit together really well? Seven of the Tigers' nine everyday players are 32 or older. And that age is really showing up on defense, in which the Tigers rank in the bottom four in the AL in fielding percentage and range factor. "I really don't see how they can recover," said an official of one team. "They have so many issues, they could lead the league in runs scored, and I'm still not sure that would make a difference."
Bonderman
WATCH THIS PLOT LINE FROM NOW TO OCTOBER: For two months, they haven't done much more than rearrange their furniture to see if something clicks. But as the days tick off the calendar, wouldn't the Tigers be the most motivated team out there to get dramatic on us? Trade Jeremy Bonderman? Trade a big bat for an arm or two? Release Gary Sheffield? Who knows? "To make a big trade, they'd have to trade everyday players," said one AL executive, "because they can't get anything for the prospects they have left. But remember something: This is a team with a higher payroll than anybody except the Yankees, so they're all in financially. They're totally invested in winning. So you wonder if they'll get to July and do something crazy."
WHAT WE EXPECTED: In a year in which they waved goodbye to Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, changed general managers and had to start Livan Hernandez on opening day, it's hard to find anybody -- from Kent Hrbek to ex-Gov. Jesse Ventura -- who thought this team would find a way to contend. But at least the Twins added a little thump in Delmon Young. Uh, didn't they?
WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: OK, not exactly. Young has more at-bats (223) without a home-run trot than any player in baseball. Hernandez has won more games (six) than Verlander and Bonderman combined (five). And the Twins are the only team in the entire American League that still hasn't lost more than three games in a row.
Gomez
BEST REASON TO THINK THEY'LL WIN: Young is 22 years old. So is Carlos Gomez. There are days the only Twin on the field who's over 30 is third baseman Mike Lamb. There are other days the only Twins on the field who were on the roster last year are Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer. So this is a club with upside, and a roster that's still meshing as a group. "We have some guys changing teams and other guys changing leagues," Smith said. "So there's been an adjustment period."
BEST REASON TO THINK THEY WON'T WIN: Usually, in order to win, you have to dominate some area of the game. But other than the ninth inning, in which Joe Nathan is as good as it gets, what area does this team dominate? The Twins are 10th in the league in OPS, next to last in homers, ninth in runs created, ninth in ERA, eighth in rotation ERA and, in the biggest shocker, next to last in total errors, having committed more errors than any AL team but Texas. "I don't know how they can win it," said one scout, "other than by default."
WATCH THIS PLOT LINE FROM NOW TO OCTOBER: Remember Francisco Liriano? He was a far cry from his old Johan Jr. self in the first chapter of his post-Tommy John surgery comeback (0-3, 11.32 ERA). But mark this down: He will be back. He has now gotten through at least six innings in five straight Triple-A starts. And his command is back (only six walks in his past 34 innings). So we haven't heard the last of one of the most charismatic young pitchers around. "Our hope is that he only has one more move left," Smith said. "And that's [back] to Minnesota."
WHAT WE EXPECTED: This was going to be the year. The year they didn't finish last. The year they took a run at .500. The year Billy Butler and Alex Gordon became certifiable offensive forces. The year Trey Hillman's managerial positivity changed the culture of a team that was sick of lugging the weight of 13 straight losing seasons. Yeah, this was going to be the year, all right.
WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Too bad the season didn't end around April 9. The Royals were 6-2 then. In first place. Feeling good about life. But unfortunately, they kept playing. Whereupon Butler slumped himself all the way back to Omaha, after slugging just .339. And Gordon is coming along, but they'd kind of like him to outhomer, say, Rod Barajas. And this team just lost 12 in a row -- for the fourth time in four seasons. Which is four more times than the Yankees have had a 12-game losing streak in the past 95 seasons.
Soria
BEST REASON TO THINK THEY'LL WIN: Ooh. That's a tough one. Because Zach Greinke (5-3, 3.56) is turning the corner toward an ace? Because Joakim Soria (1.16 ERA) never gives up a run? Because they might have to hear more Jose Guillen lectures if they keep losing? Sorry. That's just not quite enough. "They're not even close to Tampa Bay as far as getting quality position players in there," said one scout. "And even their pitchers just aren't upper-tier guys. All their young pitchers are [No.] 4s or [No.] 5s [as starters], except for Greinke. So I just don't see the upside I see in Tampa Bay."
BEST REASON TO THINK THEY WON'T WIN: If this team never had to come to bat, life wouldn't be so depressing. But that's not allowed. So what we have here is a club that's last in the big leagues in runs scored, homers, extra-base hits and walks -- but at least the team has three more stolen bases than Jacoby Ellsbury. "As much as they're trying to change the perception of what they're doing and where they're going," said one scout, "other than pitching, I just don't see much progress."
WATCH THIS PLOT LINE FROM NOW TO OCTOBER: On a team with no lineup cornerstones besides Gordon, they have to get Butler straightened out. In ESPN's preseason fantasy rankings, he was rated above Kosuke Fukudome, Geovany Soto and Joey Votto (among others). So this guy isn't just another reclamation project -- not in this town. "I think he'll be a good hitter, but without a ton of power," said one AL exec. "But the trouble with one-dimensional players is, when they don't hit, it's very tough, because they don't run or play defense. So they really can't afford to have him not hit."
Ready To Rumble
• OH SAY CAN YOU C.C.: C.C. Sabathia to the Red Sox? Our spies say the Indians have "got their soldiers out, looking at other clubs with depth and prospects," just in case they decide to put their ace on the market. And one organization they've been scouting most heavily is (yep) the Red Sox.
Sabathia
As we mentioned earlier in Rumblings, the Indians are still traveling down duel paths, hoping to charge back into the race but also letting teams know that if that doesn't happen, they're willing to listen -- on Sabathia and others. An official of one curious club says the price of an ace is "three quality pieces," which can be either young big-leaguers or advanced prospects.
Meanwhile, an executive from another club says Cleveland "would have to do better than two first-round draft picks" to justify trading Sabathia. Meaning, he said, "this would have to be a sign-and-trade."
But it's tough to envision Sabathia foregoing his free agency without a humongous, Johan Santana-esque payoff. And those kinds of deals rarely happen in July.
First off, said the same exec, "why would you give up three top-notch guys when you can wait two or three months and sign him without giving up any of them? And if we're talking seven years, I'd have a hard time with that. Considering his size now, what's his body going to look like in the sixth or seventh year? I'd go four years, but I wouldn't go six or seven. If you're talking seven times $20 million, whew. That's wrong."
Nevertheless, an official of a third team said, "Can you imagine C.C. in the same rotation with [Josh] Beckett and Dice-K? He'd change the whole complexion of the postseason."
SEEING STARS
Two months ago, the Giants were viewed as having as little talent as any team in baseball. Now one scout says of them: "You could legitimately make a case for having four Giants on the All-Star team." To which we need to add: No kidding. And those four are the following:
Aaron Rowand (.328 AVG., .924 OPS, 8 HR, 36 RBIs): "A great player. He brings so much to the table. Defense. Offense. And a great energy guy."
Bengie Molina (.328 AVG., .861 OPS, 6 HR, 37 RBIs): "There are very few players I'd rather have up there with the winning run on third and less than two outs than Bengie Molina."
Brian Wilson (16 SAVES, 28 K, 24 IP): "He's the National League's Joe Nathan, except nobody knows it."
Tim Lincecum (7-1, 2.23 ERA): "He'd be my pick to start the All-Star Game. I'd take him over [Brandon] Webb, for right now anyway. I'm really impressed by Tim Lincecum. Nobody can hit his fastball or his curve. He has an idea what he's doing. And he has real good presence."
• MORE C.C.: The other question about Sabathia we're often asked is this: Why couldn't the Indians try to trade him for a bat or bats that would help them this year while still attempting to win with the arms they'd have left?
Because "I don't see those trades out there," said an official of one team. "If the idea would be to get back major-league players, I don't see that being the market anymore. Look what the Twins got for Johan Santana. Look at the Dan Haren deal. Good young major league players just don't get traded anymore."
• BRAVE NEW WORLD: We've all heard the talk about Greg Maddux going back to Atlanta. But how about Kevin Millwood?
Our Rumblings espionage agents report that the Braves have taken a hard look at Millwood, if only because they know him well and because he wouldn't be a rent-a-starter.
But in reality, unless Texas is desperate to unload Millwood, there's as much chance of Steve Avery rejoining the Braves' rotation as there is of a Millwood comeback. He has $23 million coming in 2009 and 2010. And the Braves, as we reported last week, are interested in younger arms they can control for as long as possible. So Millwood wouldn't qualify on either front.
• WHAT'S COOKING: It's possible that Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes won't be the only big names floated by the Rockies next month. How about Aaron Cook? Clubs that have spoken with the Rockies say they've "heard Cook's name" as being potentially available. But that one seems like a serious long shot. Cook just signed a four-year, $34.5-million contract in December, and his salary goes up $1 million a year (including his 2012 option year) if he's dealt. So any team trading for him would be on the hook for $30.5 million beyond this year.
• PURSUE-LESS JOE?: Clubs that have kicked the tires on Joe Blanton report that the price hasn't dropped one centavo since last summer. To justify dealing Blanton -- who can't be a free agent until 2010 -- the A's still want three young building-block players back. That was a price tag several teams balked at last July and last winter. But there's no reason for Billy Beane to discount a guy like this.
Blanton
"Billy's got every right to ask for the moon," said an exec of one club. "And somebody may get so desperate for pitching that he'll get it. It's all how you view Joe Blanton. Billy is going to try to make everybody believe Joe Blanton is no worse than a No. 2 [starter]. And I guess if your view is that a [No.] 1 or a [No.] 2 is a guy who gives you 200 innings, then I guess he fits that criterion."
So what about Rich Harden as an alternative? "He'd have to throw 160-170 innings this year and 200 next year before I'd pay the value they're looking for," said the same exec.
• THE KC SHUFFLE: Now that the Royals are all but officially non-contenders again, the shopping season has begun in Kansas City. An executive of one club that spoke with the Royals says they're already listening on Mark Grudzielanek, Ross Gload and Esteban German. But "if they want to get serious," said the same exec, "they're going to have to talk about their bullpen pieces." Most in demand in that 'pen: Jimmy Gobble, Ramon Ramirez or the currently injured Leo Nunez.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Pudge Rodriguez has had nine seasons of at least 100 games played but fewer than 30 walks -- one more season like that than both Garret Anderson and Mark Grudzielanek.
• FENCED IN: We're hearing that when the Royals renovate Kaufman Stadium, they might be redesigning more than just the concourses and luxury boxes. They're also talking about moving the fences in -- because that step might be their best hope of upgrading their offense any time soon.
"Nobody wants to go there and hit when it's 385 [feet] to the gaps," said one baseball man. "So why overpay for some free-agent slugger when you can move in the fences and elevate your own guys' power? The way that park is now, guys hit the ball on the screws in those gaps and it doesn't go anywhere. It dies."
• THE LIFE OF BRIAN: As we've mentioned before, Brian Giles figures to be a hot name when the Padres' trade mart opens for business. But even though Giles has hit just three homers this year, one scout we surveyed believes he could put up very different numbers in a different setting.
"I think you'd probably get a little more power than he's showing now," the scout said, "just because he knows he can't show it in that ballpark [Petco Park]. So he's become a walk/on-base machine. But get him in a different park, and I think you'd get a different player. I'd like to have him. I know that."
Utley
• ANOTHER TRIFECTA?: We talked last week about the odds of Josh Hamilton or Lance Berkman winning the triple crown? Hey, what about Chase Utley? He might have won the batting title last year if he hadn't broken his hand. And he was leading the NL in homers and RBIs at one point this week.
"In that ballpark, he could do it," said one NL scout. "He's a great, great player, man. People are finally understanding how good he is. He's a better hitter than Berkman or Hamilton. He knows the strike zone so well. He gets good swings on good fastballs, and he gets good swings on your best breaking balls. I wouldn't put anything past him."
• VLAD ALL OVER: In case you hadn't noticed, Vladimir Guerrero's batting average is down 75 points (to just .249). His slugging percentage is down 123 points (to .424). And his OPS (.772) is down nearly 200 points. So it's kind of interesting that all of a sudden, you don't hear as much talk about the Angels signing him to an extension as you did last winter.
"I was a little disturbed by the way he played," said one scout. "I've never seen him look this bad. He looks absolutely helpless against the breaking ball. . And in the outfield, it looks like he's dragging his foot when he runs.
"I'll tell you. It's tough to watch great players go through that, because there's a point in time where you start to wonder how high he can bounce back. I'm not ready to write him off. But watching his body and his body language, I don't think he'd be a guy I could invest five years in."
Quote of the week
From Braves manager Bobby Cox, to Dayton Daily News Hall of Famer Hal McCoy:
"Does that damn Jay Bruce ever make an out?"
Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com. His book, "The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History," was published by Triumph Books and is available in bookstores. Click here to order a copy.