Zenyatta lends Cup some drama
There is an absence of anticipated drama in the final act of Breeders' Cup XXVI on Saturday at Santa Anita.
Sunday Silence and Easy Goer produced weeks of buzz leading up to the 1989 Breeders' Cup Classic. The merits and vulnerabilities of Ferdinand and Alysheba, Bernardini and Invasor were debated long before they brought great theater to the finales of racing seasons past. The air came out of this balloon some time ago and will not be inflated by the presence of the undefeated mare Zenyatta in America's richest race.
Jess Jackson framed the Classic in the strange material over which racing is conducted at Santa Anita when he announced at midseason that there would be no Breeders' Cup on a plastic surface for Rachel Alexandra, who while at rest in Kentucky over the coming weekend remains the presumptive Horse of the Year. The redoubtable 3-year-old Sea The Stars, the dominant figure on the European stage this season, may have saved the day in Arcadia, but his Hong Kong connections opted for retirement following what they saw as an important-enough career finale last month in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in Paris.
As it was a year ago, the synthetic Pro-Ride surface, not horse racing, is the subject that dominates the conversation in advance of the Breeders' Cup. Lacking the best American and European horses, races intended to determine championships are left without greater consequence and, as was the case in the wake of last year's European onslaught, Santa Anita 2009 will be judged in its aftermath within a framework of fiber, polymer and wax-coated sand that produced off-the-pace winners in all but one Breeders' Cup race in 2008.
Nevertheless, even in the absence of the American and European Horses of the Year and a suitable dirt course, the Classic holds great potential to be a truly memorable race, a good betting race, as they say. There is no title to be decided here, but as final legs of the pick-six go, many possibilities await, particularly for those who see the female favorite as invitingly vulnerable.
For all except those betting on others, it will be difficult to root against Zenyatta in her first test against males.
The huge mare's brilliant career is encapsulated by her record: 13-of-13, seven of those Grade 1 stakes. The winner of the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic a year ago over this course and champion American older mare of 2008 has faced the starter just four times as a 5-year-old, and her divisional title is secure.
She has, however, raced in form measurably below her best in the two most recent victories at the expense of overmatched West Coast competition. Despite her unsullied longevity, the long-striding mare with a reliable and devastating late run has not faced males nor attempted 10 furlongs and is asked for much in what will probably be the final run of her career. The daughter of Street Cry has been sharp in recent training, but whether her best is good enough to overcome unfamiliar circumstances and appreciably more formidable company than she has ever kept remains a question that precludes accepting a short price or taking a stand-alone position at the end of the pick-six. It would be no surprise to see this mare off the board.
In 13 races, Zenyatta has not faced a horse of Rip Van Winkle's class. Trainer Aiden O'Brien has called this 3-year-old by Galileo the most brilliant he has ever trained, and he arrives at Santa Anita after Group 1 victories over a mile in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot. Three defeats this season came behind Sea The Stars. An affinity for the synthetic course is not established but Raven's Pass, last year's winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, won this race ahead of the O'Brien-trained Henrythenavigator, who was runner-up in both races. A high cruising speed and stamina to stay 10 furlongs will serve this horse well, and he would certainly be no surprise. Nor would a second all-Euro exacta.
Twice Over, the reliable Juddmonte 4-year-old, faces his initial test on synthetic ground on the wings of a three-race winning streak in the United Kingdom, the most recent of which was the Group 1 Champion Stakes over 10 furlongs, his best distance, in October at Newmarket. The Henry Cecil trainee has a running style that should suit the tight course but has a punishing stride and therefore no established form on firm ground in Europe. While the synthetic course at Santa Anita does not become hard and fast when dry, there is no basis upon which to judge his affinity for the unfamiliar surface. He has sufficient raw ability and certainly the class to pose a certain threat if he responds favorably.
Zenyatta will also find her hands full with the American horses bound for the Classic.
Summer Bird, the first 3-year-old in 20 years to win the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes and Jockey Club Cup, is certain to be voted the divisional championship in postseason. He has been defeated only by Rachel Alexandra since early June and has improved progressively with each victory. Sent to California well before race day, he has trained strongly over the Santa Anita surface, dispelling or at least diminishing concern that the course might pose a problem. A stayer with uncanny versatility, he brings the formidable combination of tactical speed and a strong finishing kick that puts him squarely in the frame.
Gio Ponti may be the best of the American turf runners, having won four consecutive Grade 1 races this season before being upset in the Joe Hirsh Turf Classic in New York in October. The 4-year-old has also won Grade 3 over the Santa Anita synthetic course late last season. He is likely in the Classic in deference to a strong European contingent in the Turf. He is undoubtedly a high-class horse by any standard, with a reliable finishing kick that has been successful in five of his last seven races, and he is clearly a threat to hit the wire in front of the favored mare.
So is Einstein, a genuine 7-year-old warrior who has won Grade 1 races over turf, dirt and synthetic tracks, not insignificantly one in the Santa Anita Handicap in March. He has been freshened following a narrow defeat in the early September Pacific Classic but has since trained steadily in Kentucky in preparation for his first Breeders' Cup assignment. In his best form, he is a formidable and dangerous presence.
While none of these horses are apt to claim Eclipse Awards next winter, the list of plausible contenders extends to almost every starter in the Classic. Seldom does a race appear likely of offer double-digit prices on multiple graded stakes winners.
Colonel John has won only a minor stakes in more than a year since his last Grade 1 success, but the 4-year-old by Tiznow recaptured his best form in his most recent start in October, when he was a narrowly beaten second in the...
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